Political activists murdered in bogaland — tensed situation, clashes between government and opposition.
Is there a risk of armed conflict? The planned elections in bogaland scheduled to take place in 3 weeks, may have to be postponed, say UN peace monitoring representatives. On Friday a clash between the government and opposition parliament members and student activists from the Midan Liberation Movement (MLM) outside parliament left dozens injured. The government spokesman said the MLM provoked the crowd, starting the incident. The following day the bodies of two leading civil rights supporters belonging to the MLM were found. The MLM has demanded the president step down. The UN special representative has fl own in, while the army has set a curfew, erected roadblocks at major intersections, and at the airport. bogaland’s president has set up a board of inquiry to look into the murders, and the MLM is demanding an open hearing.The government wants the inquiry closed to the public. The major newspaper, the government published Blade, ran headlines accusing the opposition of past atrocities, saying they will never give in to ”terrorists”. A major rally is being planned by the MLM while more radical elements of the MLM are calling for a return to war. bogalands economy rests on the uranium, oil and gas resources located on the minority Midan peoples traditional homelands.

• What kind of further information do you need for a comprehensive analysis?

• What necessary actions are needed in order to prevent an escalation of the situation?

• What other organisations/ institutions/ actors etc. can be consulted, contacted or mobilized?

• Could you describe three alternative scenarios of the development in Bogaland - best case scenario, worst case scenario and middle way scenario.?

Peace Team Forum
Starrbäcksgatan 11
172 99 Sundbyberg

Viking '05

In December 2005, violent conflict will erupt in parts of Bogaland and the existing ceasefire agreement will begin to unravel across the country. A peacekeeping force, lead by NATO, will be deployed to the area in an effort to re-establish peaceful relations.

Peace Team Forum

While still volatile, an outbreak of war has been avoided in Bogaland throughout 2005. Through the efforts of local community based groups and international NGOs, conflicts have been resolved before becoming violent.
 
Two clear paths. Two decidedly different outcomes. Which route will Bogaland chose? Which route will lead to a sustainable peace?

Bogaland, a fictional country used in the Swedish military's scenario based training excercises, is facing a number of threats that could easily lead to a re-escalation of conflict. In this training scenario, violent conflict is a forgone conclusion and only an external, NATO lead, military force is capable of resoring the peace. Common Bogalanders are unfortunately reduced to a role of victim with only limited means of shaping the peace.

As a means of complementing the peacebuilding efforts of the Viking excercise, and countering the marginalizing effects of an external military intervenor, the PTF sponsored scenario will demonstrate that violent conflict can be avoided through the empowerment of civil society groups. By shifting the focus of the scenario from the conflict to the people within the conflict, the PTF excercise will put a human face on the issue of peace building.

 

Scenario based exercise in prevention of armed conflict

 

Themes 

The scenario exercise is based on situations and events, stemming from structural or proximate causes as well from trigger events, within four categories:

  1. Governance (democracy and human rights)
  2. Infrastructure and economic cooperation
  3. Natural resources and environment
  4. Security

The aim with the exercise is to identify tools and opportunities for cooperation in prevention of armed conflict. Following each panel presentation the group of participants is divided into smaller groups and is given situations to solve based on the four above categories.

 

Analysis

In analyzing a conflict prone context we also define what options are at hand. Who does the analysis and why determines the outcome. In the pilot exercise 10-12 May addressing conflict analysis we will invite three speakers giving short presentations on:

  • Root and proximate causes, trigger events in relation to governance, infrastructure, natural resources and security.
  • Connectors and Dividers in relation to governance, infrastructure, natural resources and security.
  • Needs assessment (e.g. how do people living in the conflict prone context define their situation and what is needed) in relation governance, infrastructure, natural resources and security.

 

Tools and Goals

In addressing the causes for conflict we can identify two approaches: operational or direct prevention, implying reaction to a direct crisis, or structural, long term prevention to create conditions where armed or violent conflict hardly arise. Different actors have different mandates suggesting on what kind of prevention or action they can take. Cooperation between actors in cooperation, creating linkages and synergies between multitudes of efforts would enhance the effectiveness in prevention of armed conflict.

What goals can actors with different mandates agree on and work towards?

A panel of speakers will give short presentations on:

  • The RPP four cell matrix on theories of change and need for linkages. Cooperation between actors, EU - civil society, UN - civil society, networks.
  • How can a nation or community withdraw from or stay out of an armed conflict? What are the measures and keys to it? And how can it be supported? Goals for prevention of armed conflict or security (e.g. the military defining an End State or the Millennium Development Goals)

 

Effectiveness

In making prevention more effective and to the point we need criteria for evaluating individual interventions and efforts in relation to the overall goal or aim (direct or structural prevention of armed conflict).

A panel will give a short presentation on:

  • RPP criteria for effectiveness
  • The Uppsala University comparative study on where preventive measures have proven effective.